{"id":21461,"date":"2021-10-14T13:30:07","date_gmt":"2021-10-14T13:30:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smh.group\/?p=21461"},"modified":"2023-02-15T13:47:13","modified_gmt":"2023-02-15T13:47:13","slug":"just-what-else-could-go-wrong","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devstagesite.co.uk\/smhgroup\/just-what-else-could-go-wrong\/","title":{"rendered":"Just what else could go wrong?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Cast your mind back to early 2020.\u00a0 Brexit had been hauled over the finishing line with a \u201csort of\u201c deal with the EU and at least half the nation was happy.\u00a0 There was a tiny speck of cloud on the horizon that seemed to be growing but the experts were largely dismissive.<\/p>\n

On 6 March 2020, I attended an economics forum where a panel of distinguished experts gave their forecasts on a range of subjects.\u00a0 Interest rates?\u00a0 \u201cEdging up\u201d.\u00a0 In fact, they nose-dived to 0.1% and have stayed there.\u00a0 Inflation?\u00a0 \u201csteady at just under 2%\u201d.\u00a0 Currently, the rate is 4.2% and rising fast. Covid?\u00a0 \u201cAll over by May\u201d.\u00a0 Unfortunately, that expert failed to say which year.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

The Post Covid Landscape<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Since that day, we have stumbled from one crisis to another.<\/p>\n

Covid<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Putting aside the health aspects, it has wrecked the High Street, the hospitality and foreign travel sectors and spawned a \u201cworking from home\u201d culture with unknown long-term consequences.<\/p>\n

Debt<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Additional Government (or taxpayer, if you prefer) debt has hit \u00a3400 billion and is rising.\u00a0 That\u2019s an awful lot of debt to bequeath to the next generation.<\/p>\n

NHS <\/strong><\/h3>\n

This seems to be in a permanent state of crisis and hurling more \u00a3billions at its bureaucrats will not help.<\/p>\n

Co2 <\/strong><\/h3>\n

No one saw that coming.\u00a0 One of the most abundant gases on the planet and we run out of it with numerous adverse knock-on effects.\u00a0 A modest \u00a360m \u201csubsidy\u201d to the manufacturers soon fixed that one.<\/p>\n

Fuel <\/strong><\/h3>\n

The latest crisis is largely media generated.\u00a0 Just five BP filling stations run dry and one much-hyped story later, the nation\u2019s drivers rush to fill their tanks to the brim.<\/p>\n

Supermarket shortages <\/strong><\/h3>\n

The shelves are getting thinner and thinner.\u00a0 No amount of space-filling with random products (cleaning products nestling up to the baked beans) can disguise the fact.\u00a0 And we are still 10 weeks from Christmas.<\/p>\n

Gas\/electricity<\/strong><\/h3>\n

This always was a fragile market, populated by micro-suppliers chasing market share without the infrastructure to support a long term business.\u00a0 One blip in the market and their absence of reserves (cash or product) is immediately exposed.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

And the next six months?<\/strong><\/h2>\n

Strap in for a bumpy ride.\u00a0 Any of the following are possible.<\/p>\n

Covid mutation<\/strong><\/h3>\n

The virus is in every country in the World and new variants emerge constantly.\u00a0 So far, the science has kept pace, but for how long?<\/p>\n

Winter is coming <\/strong><\/h3>\n

Drought, floods, heatwave sooner or later it will be the turn of snow.\u00a0 A couple of inches brings the UK to a halt.\u00a0 What would a couple of feet of snow do?<\/p>\n

Interconnector failure<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A significant proportion of our gas and electricity comes from pipes\/cables within Europe.\u00a0 A fire has put one of the electricity interconnectors offline for 3 months.\u00a0 What if another fails?\u00a0 Or if EU politicians (or Putin) use this as a bargaining chip to get their own way on something else?<\/p>\n

Nuclear or Wind Power<\/strong><\/h3>\n

A quiet winter with little wind or a nuclear power station having a technical problem \u2013 the safety margin on supplies is very thin.<\/p>\n

Inflation<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Despite running at well over twice the 2% target level, politicians and economists are rushing to assure us that this is caused by temporary factors (Brexit is always a convenient excuse) and all will be well by early 2022.\u00a0 The trouble is that there are no more economic levers left to pull.\u00a0 We have printed almost \u00a31 trillion (or \u201cquantitative easing\u201d as it is mysteriously termed) and the market\u2019s appetite for any more is limited.\u00a0 Allowing interest rates to increase from near 0% even to a modest 1% will wreck millions of overindebted household budgets.\u00a0\u00a0 And more importantly, the Government\u2019s finances.<\/p>\n

Internet failure<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Of all the global supply chains, this is the biggest.\u00a0 There have been numerous hacks that have produced localised damage.\u00a0 What if the state-sponsored hackers of China, Russia etc get lucky and you can\u2019t order your food from the supermarket, play fantasy football or gamble online. If Facebook can suffer a 6hr outage anyone can. Truly, the barbarians will be at the gates.<\/p>\n

The next shortage?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Milk.\u00a0 Try stocking up on that one.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Events, dear boy, events<\/strong><\/h2>\n

In many ways, we are re-living the 1960s, but without the Beatles.\u00a0 We are living beyond our means on a never-ending surge of consumerism.\u00a0 There is a \u201cwind of change\u201d blowing through global politics – the inexorable rise of China in our case.\u00a0 And for a variety of reasons, productivity (the only cure for rampant inflation) remains flat.<\/p>\n

There is some dispute as to the origins of the quote of the Prime Minister of the time (Harold Macmillan) in answer to the question of what kept him awake at night \u2013 his reply was \u201cEvents, dear boy, events\u201d \u2013 but there is no disputing that we are as powerless to predict (and cope with) crises then, as we are now.<\/p>\n

Tim Hill<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Director, SMH Jolliffe Cork<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Cast your mind back to early 2020.\u00a0 Brexit had been hauled over the finishing line with a \u201csort of\u201c deal with the EU and at least half the nation was happy.\u00a0 There was a tiny speck of cloud on the horizon that seemed to be growing but the experts were largely dismissive.\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":20529,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[832],"tags":[183,35,838,495,314,840,839,237,239,805],"class_list":["post-21461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-smh-jolliffe-cork","tag-brexit","tag-business","tag-co2","tag-covid-19","tag-debt","tag-energy","tag-fuel","tag-inflation","tag-interest-rates","tag-nhs"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nJust what else could go wrong? - SMH Group - SMH Jolliffe Cork<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Cast your mind back to early 2020.\u00a0 Brexit had been hauled over the finishing line with a \u201csort of\u201c deal with the EU and at least half the nation was happy.\u00a0 There was a tiny speck of cloud on the horizon that seemed to be growing but the experts were largely dismissive.\u00a0\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_GB\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Just what else could go wrong? 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