{"id":20108,"date":"2020-05-15T10:42:23","date_gmt":"2020-05-15T10:42:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/smh.group\/?p=20108"},"modified":"2023-02-15T13:43:51","modified_gmt":"2023-02-15T13:43:51","slug":"all-the-zeros-five-fold-government-borrowing-expectations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/devstagesite.co.uk\/smhgroup\/all-the-zeros-five-fold-government-borrowing-expectations\/","title":{"rendered":"All the zeros: five-fold government borrowing expectations"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The government could end up borrowing five times as much as it expected on Budget day.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the Budget on 11 March, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated that in 2020\/21, the government would have to borrow about \u00a355bn to make up the difference between what it spent and what would be raised in taxes and other revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A little over one month later, the OBR issued another, vastly different set of numbers, quoting potential borrowing of \u00a3273bn or 14% of GDP. This time the OBR was at pains to emphasise that its figures were not<\/em> a formal forecast but rather \u201ca scenario \u2026 based on the illustrative assumption that people\u2019s movements (and thus economic activity) would be heavily restricted for three months and would get back to normal over the subsequent three months\u201d. The second part of the OBR\u2019s scenario of a V-shaped recovery \u2013 a sharp fall followed by an even sharper bounce back \u2013 was met with some scepticism from other forecasters. Other letters of the alphabet common to economists have been suggested:<\/p>\n\n\n\n